Rydex Total Assets Update for Tuesday, February 19th, 2002:
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Money Market 1.714 BILLION**BULLISH Triple OVERBOUGHT
Highest Close Since 09/27/2000
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Regular Series: (100% Correlation to Index (Nova 150%))
SPX Long - NOVA 189.5 Million**BULLISH
Lowest Close Since 09/21/2001
SPX Short- URSA 316.7 Million**BULLISH Inversion
NDX Long - OTC 794.6 Million**BULLISH
Lowest Close Since 10/09/2001
NDX Short- ARKTOS 140.9 Million**BULLISH
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Dynamic Series: (200% correlation to Index)
SPX Long - TITAN 70.9 Million**BULLISH
Lowest Close Since 10/29/2001
SPX Short- TEMPEST 181.4 Million**BULLISH Inversion
Near All Time Highs
NDX Long - VELOCITY 150.9 Million**BULLISH Inversion
NDX Short- VENTURE 271.2 Million**BULLISH Near All Time Highs
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Sector Funds:
XAU Precious Metals 85.0 Million**BEARISH
XOI Energy 10.3 Million**BULLISH Near 3 Year Lows
OSX Energy Services 24.5 Million**BULLISH
BKX Banking 15.2 Million**BULLISH Near 3 + Year Low
BTK Biotech 228.6 Million**BULLISH New 2 1/2 year Low
RUT 2000 - MIKROS 33.9 Million**BULLISH New 3 Month Low
RLX Retail 84.2 Million
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The negative psychology of the masses has the markets drowning in a swamp. The DOW is 2,000 points off the September bottom and it feels like we are setting daily new lows. THE SPX is more than 100 points higher than the September bottom but it feels like SPX 1,080 has crashed and burned and yet it still remains standing. The disdain for owning stocks has become so pervasive it has become en vogue to be Bearish. It is the obvious necessary ingredient for the final base formation of the reverse head and shoulders pattern in order for the next leg up to commence.
The bear leaves no stone unturned as it wreaks havoc across the board. This action is quite similar to late 1974 action as the market continues to gropple with the bottom. But it also has ingredients of the fall of 1986 as the US was going thru iran contra affair with ollie north culminating in the scandal insider trading and the boesky low in november as he was charged with 100 million for fraud. Today we have terrorism and enronitis scandal and accounting malfeasance but like 74 and 86 this too shall pass.
All sectors got hit.
Rydex Money Market TA levels closed above 1.7 Billion for the first time since September 27, 2000...
The XAU got demolished at it closed down 5.12% to close down $3.45 @ XAU 63.95, its lowest close since February 1st (XAU 62.80). We got partial fill of that first gap XAU 62.80 - 63.62 as XAU intraday low hit XAU 63.22. Other gaps beneath this level are XAU 61.33 - 61.69; and XAU 58.57 - 58.62... With today's nasty break XAU 61.50 is dead ahead. XAU 5 day RSI is not even below oversold levels yet. But XAU TA levels decreased only 3 million.
BKX is again right on death row support (780) as it closed at BXK 783.55 down 26 points. BKX 795 needs to be restored within two days, or it is gona melt down to BKX 750 before reversing back up. BKX direction will be the early litmus test if we reverse back up tomorrow. For tomorrow, I will give BKX elastic support to BKX 774... it must hold this level and reverse or we are going to test my lower band SPX 1,060. If we move up and away to BKX 790 and higher SPX 1,080 will hold again as we try to launch another counter-rally.
SOX 534.89 broke just the same and I see this being restored back above SOX 545 within two days.
COMP 1,772 got crushed. The low was COMP 1,745.05 with close at COMP 1,750.61. COMP 1,725 is possible but I see COMP 1,790 within two trading days.
If it hasn't already culminated today, at a certain point tomorrow selling will simply exhaust itself and dry up. Buyers will then come in and reverse this market back up and I am looking for a higher close tomorrow, no later than Wednesday.
Regular Series: 100% Long NDX OTC
Dynamic Series: 100% Long SPX TITAN
Best Regards, J.T. |
