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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA
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To: J.T. who wrote (10654)2/20/2002 1:40:35 AM
From: Killswitch  Read Replies (1) of 19219
 
These high Rydex ratios are hanging in here an amazingly long time. Looking back at that chart yet again we can see that "normally" the spikes of sentiment max out and reverse sharply back down after just a day or three. 9/11 took a bit longer and had a double peak of sentiment. Here are the numbers for the last 14 days (newest first):

17.73
16.92
16.27
17.41
18.91
17.49
17.84
19.15
17.87
17.25
18.12
17.17
15.78
15.91

That's like a quad-peak I guess :-)

Perhaps from this we can deduce that it might be safer to wait to get fully bullish until the ratio declines by at least 3 or 4 points from a peak? Sure, you'll miss the exact bottom, but it beats being trapped long through the last 2+ weeks.
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