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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory

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To: John Pitera who wrote (5683)	2/20/2002 9:38:15 AM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (1) of 33421

Alan Ruskin refines the strong correlation of the Nikkei Bank stock index and $/yen. interesting. from the WSJ. -------------- ......"While the yen is getting some level of support from repatriation of the currency by Japanese investors, it remains vulnerable to rising concerns about the banking system and banking stocks in particular, said Alan Ruskin, research director at 4Cast financial consultancy in New York. "There is a very strong correlation between the Nikkei banking index and dollar/yen," he said. "The fact of the matter is if Nikkei banking stocks are heading south, typically the yen is heading south too." For now, most market watchers say the dollar will trade within a relatively wide band of 131 yen to 135 yen against the Japanese currency. U.S. stocks are being wounded by fears that the Enron Corp. scandal isn't a one-off occurrence and that hidden problems lurk in many public companies' accounting. These concerns are also fueling fears of a liquidity crunch as some companies get locked out of the commercial-paper market and instead have to call in bank lending. While analysts reckon the fears about the health of Corporate America aren't a direct dollar-negative, the currency is being hit in a roundabout way by rising aversion to U.S. assets. The weakness in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq indexes helped the euro to catapult to the top end of its watertight trading range against the dollar, fueling talk that it will try for a sustainable break through the 88-cent resistance touched briefly on Feb. 12. Late Tuesday in New York, the euro was at 87.64 U.S. cents, up from 87.36 cents late Monday in New York. The euro was also at 117.11 yen, up sharply from 115.52 yen late Monday and from its intraday low of 115.46 yen. The dollar was at 133.65 yen up from 132.57 yen late Monday in New York......"

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