TECHNICAL EXCELLENCE
Bye-bye Market, Bye-bye Elves
Wednesday, February 20, 2002
Fred Goodman
Fred thinks it could get nastier here -- and notes that the "elves" of Wall Street
Week seem to have capitulated right off the air.
Of the three falling markets, only the NASDAQ fell on
increasing volume. We could be in store for a very nasty
decline on increasing volume.
As the market declines there is more and more discussion
about "capitulation," the mass exodus at the end of a
decline. There has been entirely too much optimism
displayed by the public, but especially by the professional
"gurus," like Abbey Joseph Cohen and others who
frequent Wall Street Week on PBS. I noticed the other night that the "Elves" have been
eliminated from the show. I guess the heat got too high since they have been bullish for two
years without exception, something like 10 bulls to 2 neutral and none bearish. Oh well,
they won't be missed.
The only way out of the current decline is for there to be a little rally on lower volume
followed by a bigger rally on higher volume. I really don't look for it to start today, or even,
for that matter, this week. In any case, when it comes, we'll be ready for a dip into the
ETF's, probably SPY and DIA, only a slight possibility of the QQQ's. It's far too soon on my
calendar for long term commitments to mutual funds. The ETFs permit one to get in and out
with the least cost and the most speed. Just right for now.
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