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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace

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To: Shack who wrote (31726)	2/20/2002 7:45:38 PM
From: ajtj99	Read Replies (1) of 209892

Shack, on this down the Dow did not breach the Feb. 8 lows while the COMP did. It appears they may be taking separate tracks to a similar result. I believe the Nasdaq may test the late Oct. lows as early as next Tuesday. The Dow seems to be a week away from testing today's low, let alone the Feb. 8 low. We may have a situation where the tech's and Dow diverge a bit over the next few weeks, with the techs dropping deeper and recovering better for options expiration and the Dow dropping to support at 9450 and recovering to 9600 for options expiration before heading towards 9100 in late March. I now agree with AA that we will re-test the Sept. lows on the COMP in April. My guide is the 20-day MA crossing the 50-day from above on the COMP. There is an 80% chance of a new low when that happens based on instances over the last 2-years (4-times out of 5). The one time it didn't happen was in July 2000, and that was a 50% re-trace, which we just finished, hence..... That's my reason for a possible divergence. Tech possibly doing the full monty in April while the Dow does a .618 re-trace? What's your thoughts on that?

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