Q2 Estimates
Steve and all,
If indeed the consensus is an EPS of $0.10,
I think it's pretty safe to say Iomega will
exceed that.
In the formula: EPS = ((Revs * % net)/ # shares)
we know that # shares is 129 million. If we set
EPS to the consensus figure of $0.10, and we very
safely assume that Iomega's % net will be at least
the same 4.6% it was in Q1, that gives us the
following:
0.1 = ((Revs * 0.046)/129),
and solving for Revs gives us
Revs = (0.1 * 129)/0.046 = $280 million.
A figure of $280 million is only a moderate increase
over the $222 million from Q1, considering all the
public talk of 5 million Zip units for 1996 and the
ramping up of Jaz, etcetera. I'll be very surprised
if Iomega doesn't beat that. Also, this assumes that
they're only going to have the same net percentage that
they had in Q1, which is a pretty low number. If their
gross revenues are higher than $280 million, or if
their net percentage is higher than the 4.6% they
managed last quarter, or both, then they're going
to beat the consensus.
Either the street is being deliberately conservative,
as I argued in an earlier post, or the street really
believes that amazing shorter who was on CNBC in the
middle of the Dow's big dive saying that the Zip is
a fad, or a little bit of both.
Please correct any errors I have here, folks. Thanks.
Cheers, Tom (long IOMG) |
