Big Dog's Boom Boom Room Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: kollmhn who wrote (6844)	2/21/2002 10:23:01 AM
From: jim_p	Read Replies (1) of 206118

kollmhn, I think Morgan is correct, but there timing is off. Flush production lasts about 9-12 months. There is also a lag time from when wells are drilled to when production commences. I suspect we will continue to see larger drop offs in production from a decline in flush production than Morgan is estimating. The biggest increase in production comes from flush production when the drilling cycle commences at the start of a new cycle which creates a surplus a lot faster than most estimate. The biggest decline in production at the end of a cycle is also a result of production drops when flush production is produced from prior drilling which is also compounded from less new flush production resulting from a slow down in new drilling. This results in production declines a lot deeper than most predict and a new crisis is started. The joys of flush production, which help the cycles have more dramatic swings. When I used to drill new NG wells on the gulf coast, my goal was to get 35-50% of the production in the first year which would hopefully pay out the cost of the well. The profit, if any, would come over the next 5+ years. Jim

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next