an interesting article for replacement of Book to Bill and indicating strength of recovery...
Handelsman Proposes Book-to-Bill Replacement
Since the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) has ceased publishing bookings data, the industry has been looking for
indicators to fill the void, and a former marketing professor from Santa Clara University, Dr. Moshe Handelsman, believes he
has the answer.
Handelsman, head of Advanced Forecasting Inc., a 10-year-old Silicon Valley semiconductor forecasting firm, has come up
with an index which is "based on quantitative analyses of objective economic factors that influence the changes in IC bookings
worldwide." Called the ABI (Advanced (IC) Bookings Indicator), it is focused on calling the timing of downward turning points
in IC bookings. "What is exciting for the industry is that it is geared toward predicting structural changes in the true demand,
associated with significant downward changes in the average selling price (ASP)," Handelsman said.
Handelsman said the ABI was able to predict all three semiconductor-related recessions in advance. For the last downturn, the ABI initiated a Turning Point Alert in October 1995, three months before IC bookings began their free fall, and continued to
decline to a minimum point in June, 1996. "The ABI has been climbing since, indicating that the IC industry is on a recovery
path, and that the 1996 recession is not of a 'double-dip' type," Handelsman said.
Earlier this year, the SIA did away with the semiconductor book-to-bill ratio, based on sales figures for U.S.-based three-month
average orders. Handelsman said replacing the SIA "hard numbers" with estimates based on "soft information" (requiring
retroactive modifications) is not a long- term or useful solution. In a press release suggesting the ABI as a replacment for the
book-to-bill, Handelsman said what the industry needs is a tool that announces the precise timing of when the next "turning
point" will occur, preferably a few months in advance. The tool would be especially critical as the industry climbs out of a
recession, when the next turning point, by definition, would be downward. |
