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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)
CSCO 74.40-1.4%3:59 PM EST
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To: RetiredNow who wrote (57783)2/21/2002 11:06:26 AM
From: Stock Farmer  Read Replies (1) of 77400
 
The gizzards of my GIGO function.

I found two mistakes so far. Maybe you can spot others before we drive each other nuts using the same assumptions getting to different numbers ;)

So we can at least come to agreement on one thing.

First of all, share count (my first mistake). I get shares in 2020 of 12.48 Billion, growing 7.3 Billion by 3% per anum. Do you agree?

Second, cash flow each year.

Starting with one dollar in year 2001 I get $1.30 in 2002, 1.469 in year two and so on.

But I also have 1.10 in year 2003 is worth the same as 1.00 in year 2002.

We want the product of these effects summed over the years 2002 to 2020.

Working this out is a good job for excel.

Columns below, explained.

Year (self explanatory)
Growth (YoY)
Cash (last year's cash x Growth)
PV Factor (converts future dollars to current dollars at 10%)
PV Cash (present value of year's cash)


			10%	
Year	Growth	Cash	PV Discount	PV Cash
	%	$		
2001		1.000		
2002	13	1.130	1.000	1.130
2003	30	1.469	1.100	1.335
2004	25	1.836	1.210	1.518
2005	20	2.204	1.331	1.656
2006	15	2.534	1.464	1.731
2007	15	2.914	1.611	1.809
2008	15	3.351	1.772	1.892
2009	15	3.854	1.949	1.978
2010	15	4.432	2.144	2.068
2011	10	4.875	2.358	2.068
2012	10	5.363	2.594	2.068
2013	10	5.899	2.853	2.068
2014	10	6.489	3.138	2.068
2015	10	7.138	3.452	2.068
2016	5	7.495	3.797	1.974
2017	5	7.869	4.177	1.884
2018	5	8.263	4.595	1.798
2019	5	8.676	5.054	1.717
2020	5	9.110	5.560	1.638
				
Total				34.464


Here's present value of future cumulative profit per share for a range of year 2001 values


2001 Profit	2020 Profit	Total	Per Share
B$	B$	B$	12.43 B
0.50	4.6	17.2	 $1.39 
1.00	9.1	34.5	 $2.77 
1.50	13.7	51.7	 $4.16 
2.00	18.2	68.9	 $5.55 
2.50	22.8	86.2	 $6.93 
3.00	27.3	103.4	 $8.32 
3.67	33.4	126.5	 $10.18 
4.00	36.4	137.9	 $11.09 
4.50	41.0	155.1	 $12.48 
5.00	45.5	172.3	 $13.87

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