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Strategies & Market Trends : Joe Stocks Trader Talk

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To: Robert Klein who wrote (319)	2/21/2002 11:14:41 AM
From: Joe Stocks	of 787

>TOL short? Could you expound.< Robert, here ya go. -Here is a comparative chart with some other builders. TOL has not done nearly as well. If the sector moves away from me my bets are TOL will lag. siliconinvestor.com - TOL caters to the luxury market. I think this will be the first to show slowing. - TOL just reported revenues were up just 5% during a record industry year. I was not impressed. TOL reports next week. All the others have reported godd sales growth. I think any good news is already built into the stock price. - Insider sales picked up recently. - Chart is showing weakness by moving below it's 20ema and yesterday's spike in volume near it's 50ema. You make a good point about homebuilders being a strong sector. I screw up often ignoring that. I'm taking a contrarian approach here that after 3 strong years of home buying that we are due for a pause. With mortgages for new purchases being weak I think we may be seeing a top. Also several of the quarterly reports that came out last month showed great sales but new orders were down from last year. That tells me that they may have trouble meeting Q1. In hindsight I am probably early which has more risk. That said, as long as a trade is going "my" way it is my job to add to the position. I won't do that much on a tech trade because of rampant whipsaw but, on these more stable stocks I will. One other point, there has been more and more press on the problems with GSE's and the likes of FNM and FRE. This may put additional pressure on this industry soon. Joe

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