The wild card, of course, is that the price could be plummeting day after day because there might be information known to some but not all
Saw, I don't want to sound pollyanic here. Given recent events, it's probably necessary to envision the worst possible case. Still, I think the plummet is more easily, and less darkly, explained. CSFB has simply stated that LWIN's business plan is flawed, and that ultimately (given CSFB's projections) they won't be able to service their debt. It's a simple and fundamental disagreement on viability of concept. I suppose it's not so dissimilar to QCOM's early days when one could, quite rationally I think, make the argument that even if cdma works, it's too late to the party to fly. PCSTEL, I think, pointed out that great opportunities are created when the individual investor gets it right while the rest of the market has it wrong. FWIW, I think the concept works and I think CSFB, and the market, are sorely mistaken in their appraisal. Nothing sinister there, just an assessment (Harvey's) not shared currently by the market.
I'm mindful of Andrew's comments about loss of market capitalization. Frankly, I don't really know what that could do to LWIN's viability. As a market player I'm expecting to see a NAZ 1650 before the spring is out. That should be followed by a very robust rally into fall. Why? Well, I confess that's what some technicians I find pretty accurate are forecasting. On the theory that a rising market raises all boats, I'm expecting LWIN to benefit, if for no other reason, than they'll be in a short term bull market in a month or two.
I mention that because the May report now looms huge imho. It should (unlike the environment that greeted the February report) occur in a "buoyant" market which will be more inclined to reward good news. What is more important, it should answer the question posed rather succinctly earlier on the thread, who's right - CSFB or Harvey White.
FWIW I'm holding my nose and adding - steadily pushing my average toward $6 a share. I think LWIN has it right, and CSFB is mistaken. Recent numbers seem to support LWIN's strategy. I'll know the answer soon enough.
Pierre |
