Caxton,
re: 1xRTT overlay of GSM MAP (Comparative Cost)
<< Anyone have an idea of the costs of upgrading to WCDMA vs. CDMA2000 for a GSM operator? >>
Not a clue - how about you?
Pretty tough to determine before anyone starts to commercialize it, IMO.
Heck, going back a few years it was darned difficult for a carrier to determine the comparative cost of implementing GSM v. cdmaOne in a greenfield environment which is why AWS commissioned the Strategis study in mid-99, and the issue starts with Dr. Jacob's claim of cdmaOne being 5x more efficient GSM (reiterated at GS a few weeks ago) v. the more generally accepted (in the carrier community) 3x to 5x across a real (not simulated) network.
I suspect it might be pretty expensive comparatively, particularly for those carriers that have already invested in latest rev forward compatible base stations from a Nokia, Ericsson, or Siemens, unless Nokia, Ericsson, or Siemens provides the upgrade after they commercialize it ... IF and WHEN they are inclined to commercialize it.
What did Dr. Jacobs say at GS? .... 1xRTT was 26x AMPS and WCDMA was 20x AMPS (before the stated Qualcomm futures and not taking into account the unstated WCDMA futures)? That's not a big differential, and we don't have any real way of measuring comparative costs of gear.
If we could the question really becomes what advantages do you gain, and what do you give up (particularly in regard to the underlying protocols and services and modes of operation - backward compatible to GSM - and incorporated in the UTRAN), relative to the cost differential if any.
3GPP 3GSM 'R99/R4) is a heck of a lot more robust and comprehensive standard than 3GPP2 cdma2000 release A (which fact has both its upside and its downside).
Jorma used to talk about the camel that overly-engineered and minutely specified GSM became.
I think of 1xRTT as a stiletto, and 3GSM as a Swiss army knife.
Both serve a purpose.
One is more versatile but it takes longer to engineer.
If 1xRTT overlay of GSM MAP commercialization started today (maybe it already has) there would most certainly be no time to market advantage.
Relative to comparative cost, any guinea pig would have to factor in the cost of being an early adopter, and dealing with severe interoperability and debugging issues.
I see a 1xRTT overlay of GSM MAP having very limited applicability, outside of carriers who are blessed <g> with operating GSM and cdmaOne in the same general geography (Unicom, Telstra, Telifonica ... but not Vodafone).
Unicom is certainly the best bet. Telstra maybe number 2 (but probably low probability).
With a limited prospect base of candidates for the 1xRTT overlay, it is likely that the overlay would be more expensive than WCDMA for simple lack of economies of scale, which was one of the initial reasons historically that cdmaOne was more expensive to implement than GSM (or IS-136 TDMA was more expensive to implement greenfields than GSM).
What I do see is the eventuality of convergence around an all-IP RAN with multiple radio interfaces. I think Korea may lead the way with this if they eventually migrate to WCDMA in 3G spectrum - which it currently looks like will occur.
Certainly Ericsson, probably Nokia, and maybe Siemens will eventually offer cdma2000 radios in the all-IP RAN.
JMHOpinionatedOpinion ...
... feel free to fire back, and I'd certainly like to read others thoughts on this.
Best,
- Eric - |
