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Technology Stocks : Leap Wireless International (LWIN)
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To: Sawtooth who wrote (1456)2/21/2002 12:52:05 PM
From: METMAN  Read Replies (3) of 2737
 
Saw ... more food for thought ... part of what Jon said in an earlier post. We already know the quality of Harvey White from QCOM ... also, it would appear that LWIN is very conservative in numbers going forward >> ie: net adds per year. 1.1 million for 2000,2001; at least 2 million by 2002; and the last quarterly report (just read it last night) states that at maturity, LWIN expects to have a mid-teens penetration rate of their total POPS in the long term ... so ~ 15% penetration of 38.37 million available POPS. That roughly 5.76 million customers expected on average per year for the long term based on 38.37 million POPS. They've already reached 20% of their expected "maximum number of customers" in two years(?) .... if this POP number is the correct one to use for long term calculations.

If I read everything correctly and did my simple math correctly ... some questions arise:

1) Is the concept grossly misunderstood by the analyst community and will LWIN reach have many more customers than ~ mid-teens % of total POPS available ?

2) Is LWIN being ultra-conservative in their estimates moving forward?

3) Is this meltdown completely about short term funding fears which "appear" to be OK until Q42002 (according to PCSTEL)

Other questions for the board ....

Did LWIN already have a date for 1X installation, or are they going about this quietly right now so that they might tap the data market as well sometime this year or early 2003 ?

Thanks.

regards,

metman
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