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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA
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To: marginmike who wrote (10683)2/21/2002 7:12:37 PM
From: J. P.  Read Replies (1) of 19219
 
I think you're right about a crash. And it's not what I want to see. Unless they can do a jam job at the end of the day tomorrow, it could get ugly going into the weekend. Then you're set up for a dark Monday potentially.

The VXN still hasn't confirmed a breakout, which is one of the few good signs for the bulls. It's still at a lower high on a downtrend, and failed to break through the 50 DMA. Another sign for the bulls is that we are way oversold...but it is a bear market....

The bearish signs are scary. There is no support for the NDX, and lots of leading issues like INTC for a while. And I can tell you the earnings news is not going to get better going into the next quarter....there will be lots and lots of tech warnings. What tech company is really selling stuff? Dell is weak and cannibilizing margins...so that rolls downhill to all the component makers. Telecom and Long Distance are garbage, they're not buying much from Cisco who doesn't have written down inventory to dump any more. IBM's books are cooked....I need not go on.

I just wish the market repricing would be more gradual...a crash is not good for anybody unless you are highly bearishly positioned at these low oversold levels....which would be a very bold and risky move in of itself, but maybe a profitable one.

EDIT: OEX sitting on support, which is another thing bulls can hang their hats on...
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