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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: Uncle Frank who started this subject2/22/2002 2:41:10 AM
From: tekboy  Read Replies (4) of 54805
 
maybe there are indeed still some technical revolutions to come...

I just got the email below. Its content won't be news to folks here, but the twist is the source--the author is my brother, who is admittedly something of a technogeekenthusiast but whom I still find generally trustworthy...

tekboy/Ares@ofcourse,hisdotcomwentbustlastfallbutwedon'ttalkabouthat.com

I have ridden the future...and its name is Segway! You may have seen the news coverage when this revolutionary product was announced a couple of months ago, or heard me talk about its conceptual predecessor, the iBot wheelchair (still in FDA clinical trials) which I saw a couple of years ago. But today I actually got a chance to take a Segway out for a spin, and it is truly remarkable. For those who haven't heard of it before, this is a personal transportation vehicle that is essentially a small platform on two wheels, with a waist-high handle coming up from it (see the x-ray picture of one below). What makes it so remarkable, is that this two-wheel unit BALANCES ITSELF with you on it. It's a little hard to understand until you see one in action, but there is an incredibly powerful computer nestled inside it which constantly does all the balancing calculations! So, instead of acting like a bongo board, or a skateboard, this feels like a rock-steady platform, all the time.

It is battery powered, and will zip you around for 17 miles at over 12 mph before recharging. It has a zero turning radius (that is, it turns completely in place), and is controlled by your body movement. In the trials today, I saw it being used by young kids and 80 year old ladies, with no one having more than a few minutes of instruction. Lean slightly forward, and it moves forward. Lean a little more, and it speeds up. Lean back, it stops. Lean further back, it backs up. If you run into something, it automatically stops and backs up. It is so steady, you can't fall off. The first shipments will be in a couple of months to the post office and police departments. Consumer versions will ship at the end of the year (the military version does 25+mph), and cost under $3,000.

What's amazing is that both the technical wizardry AND the product design are both unbelievably sophisticated. The thinking behind this is that most people consider as their 'neighborhood' any place that they can walk to in about ten minutes. Since the Segway goes about three times as fast as a person walking, and does it with much less exertion, the effect is to expand your "neighborhood" radius to triple the distance, and thus the area by a full order of magnitude.

I predict that within a year of this thing shipping, these devices will be ubiquitous, and will change all sorts of thinking about urban design, transportation, and many other things. If you'd like to see one in action, and learn more about it, check out the website at segway.com.
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