Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed Message Board

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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed

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To: ild who wrote (152889)	2/22/2002 1:38:01 PM
From: reaper	Read Replies (1) of 436258

Out wireless tower short (SITE, AMT, CCI, SBAC) Message 16917388 Replacing with the broadcasters. Was already in Lamar (billboards), now adding Clear Channel, Entercom, Cox Radio, Hispanic Broadcasting, Entravision, Cumulus (all radio). TV is still pretty cheap so I'll stay away from those guys on the short side. Most of these stocks are trading at historically high multiples. Big radio advertisers (cell phones, autos) are in the early stages of being in trouble, and if you believe restaurant/retail is going to roll over then this is a good derivative play. Most are also leveraged to the tune of 5-7x EBITDA. Most trade for 25-35x cash flow (equity value to cash from operations; I don't give a rat's ass about the usual valuation metric of enterprise value to EBITDA). Take a look at the cable stocks (Cox, Cablevision, Comcast) and that's a good picture of where radio will be in 6 months, IMO. Will take a small long hedge in International Speedway and Speedway Motorsports (both racetrack operators). They trade at 1/3 the multiple of the radio stocks but at the end of the day the same basic underlying trends drive their business. Cheers

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