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What are all the "EXPERTS" basing their "ESTIMATES" on? This is a question no one has ever been able to answer to my satisfaction. If OO only earned 1 cent in Q1, what "INFORMATION" do these "EXPERTS" or "ANALysts" have that leads them to estimates between 13 and 15 cents for Q2? Why didn't they estimate 11 cents? Or 12 cents? What calculations did they use? The manner in which they arrive at these figures should have to be explained to the investing public! It should be manditory. Especially when more times than not, company's miss the estimates that these ANALysts put out there. And who gets punished? The stockholders and the company do! What happens to the ANALysts? Nothing! They still have their 6 figure a year job, and everything is just fine in their world. They may field a few phone calls from the minority of people that will actually inquire as to why this happened. The answer will be a blaming of the company. On the other hand, if the company beats the expectations, then the stock will generally appreciate nicely on the news, especially if growth is forcasted. And the analysts' look like hero's. They usually follow with an upward revision of their future earnings projections, and possibly an upgrade. This I fell is the trap that almost always results in trouble down the line. Everything about the market is based on past or future, but rarely the present! Perhaps this 4th of July weekend, OO sold a record number of shades. If this were true, would that matter to the stock price now? NO. We would have to wait until October for the earnings of Q3. Anyway, enough of my hyperbolic discourse. Giles, we all hope we are not holding an empty bag! If we are, it's not OAKLEY, the company's fault, but the analysts. They are the ones that caused the runup in the price last year based on excessive and unrealistic "FUTURE PROJECTIONS" and the subsequent fall with their downgrades and downward revisions of #'s that were unrealistic in the first place. Just my 2 cents. (OR SHOULD I SAY .15, maybe .16, do I hear 17 cents........) Regards, Jeff.... |
