the two people whose views I mentioned are both experienced professionals with recent government service in important positions and extensive contacts with people still in the system. If they disagree on how to interpret what our own government is doing, just imagine how difficult it is to predict the future, accurately gauge what others are up to, etc....
i spent 2 1/2 hours last night with General Carl Stiner, co-author (with Tom Clancey) of "Shadow Warriors". a friend and i had him alone for about 20 minutes prior to the meeting and i drove him to his hotel later, so i had him alone again for more discussion.
Country Carl was the former commander of the 82nd Airborne Division and 18th Airborne Corps and was Commander-in Chief of Special Operations Command for three or four years. spoke for one solid hour about the events that led to 9/11...he knows first hand the current geography, the personalities, the military capabilities and the likely scenarios to be played out.
he had just returned from washington where he is part of a 17 man group studying our current status and preparing a plan for America's safety and future. i gathered he is totally in the information loop. this is his take...
he sees 4 threats...these are very real...and he expects us to see all of them.
cyber-terrorism...he also said we are in a position to use the internet for our intell purposes as well.
chemical and biological (2)...look for them soon.
nuclear...he specifically mentioned dirty bombs.
the status of our armed forces is very weak...he was particularly concerned about troop strength in our fighting units and the low state of training. the 82nd Airborne Division (the army's premier fighting infantry division) is at 11% lower strength than when he commanded it. he said last year, the division was completely out of 45 caliber ammo. he explained in detail how the peace dividend of the past 8 years had come at the expense of military readiness.
he expects things to change...but it will be slow....W's defense budget will help...but it is not yet law. and it is not enough...he said we need several years to rebuild.
he was very concerned about our losses in strategic lift capability(over 50% loss), the inadequate pilot training conducted over the past 5-6 years and poor gunner qualification on our major weapons systems due to lack of training and ammunition to train with...all of these training deficiencies are the result of inadequate funding for 8 years.
he said 244 lieutenant colonels turned down selection for command last year and left the service becuse they did not want to lead poorly trained and equipped men...that is incredible to me...the LTC command selection process is extremely competitive and selection is a key to making stars. these were all men with around 20 years of outstanding service (the cream of our military leaders) who left because they knew the state of our fighting force and did not want to lead it.
SF is in excellent shape training and equipment wise...but undermanned.
in the book he mentions that approx. 3,500 Green berets are deployed in about 70 countries at any one moment....i know from previous talks with general Shachnow that around 1,100 are in harm's way every day. i expect those figures have increased recently.
we have complete authorized and funded A teams at zero strength...due to training shortages. the guys doing the job are overworked, overdeployed and suffering family problems. SF recruitment is increasing...but i can tell you that it takes 2-3 years to get a guy really well trained.
the General sees no manpower problems for the terrorists...the suicide mission types and leaders are strong, determined and he sees an "unending suppply" of recruits for that program.
we have miles to go before we sleep.
unclewest |
