aj, I said that I do not have a number for the current bottom, I have resistance at 1690, 1657 and just under 1600, and then vacuum to 1385. While I doubt we will get to even 1600 in this decline, until I see the internals indicating disgust with the naz, I have no target. mind you, the Dow, as George suggested, will have to undergo a severe spill, or we do not develop that "disgust" with stocks which typifies solid bottoms. Can we get a stealth rally in the naz from any point here, it is not impossible, but until we close above 1805 on the Naz, I won't be able to change my current stance. The situation reminds me of February last year, the original February massacre scenario had a termination with a first bottom on February 28th a small bounce and then the real low on March 12th or so if memory serves. Well, we got that first bounce from the 28th, on target, but the bottom internals did not develop actually until about March the 22nd (where the Dow put its bottom), and it took few more days until April 3rd before the Naz put its bottom in.That period between March 12th to April 3rd was quite frustrating, and every day I had here (or actually on Steve's thread) "is it it?" from everyone and its brother? At least then I had the target bottom (1600 plus minus 30 naz points) alright.
Right now, I have a set of indicators that are stubbornly calling for another 400 (!!!) naz points decline to around 1296, and that will be a breach of the September lows, but i will not make it part of the scenario until the Sep lows are actually approached (and only if approached without deterioration in my various sentiment indicators). So lease accept it, the turnip's are joining Hal in not forecasting the expected low of this move, just stay out of the way until you see the white in the MM's eyes.
By the way, I believe Da Cheif already declared this down phase dead and a new bull move alive, is that correct?
Zeev |
