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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis
SPY 659.00+1.0%Nov 21 4:00 PM EST
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To: bobby beara who wrote (82656)2/23/2002 8:10:58 AM
From: Patrice Gigahurtz  Read Replies (1) of 99985
 
The DOW looks to me like the 9th inning when the manager brings in his best relief pitcher and hopes he can get 3 more outs. Why ? Because if you look back to the latter part of the 1st qtr of 1999 the DOW has since regressed toward a seemingly base mean of 10,000. However, if you look at the next base down from 10,000 it's a big drop to 8000. That 8000 mark was kissed intra-day (sort of, ie. 8400) during the attacks on DC and NYC and the Pa crash. In my view if the upcoming months don't yield hard positive evidence of a turn in the economy then that 8000 area is possibly going to be tested (?). We'll see, but thats why I think that this is the DOW's 9th inning with all the marbles bet on whether there is a turn-a-round in the next 6 months. If there isn't who amongst us can say the DOW can stay at 10k ?

Thanks

PS: Just my 2 cent as I am "venting" after losing my $$$ on the Naz since my foolish venture to catch several falling techs.
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