<font color=green>The Indexes - Weekend Edition
Charts are updated on my web site, under Index Charts.
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The Dow Industrials Hold Signals
The Dow Daily had another one of those mysterious rally days, on poor internals.
Let's see, last week in the Dow; Tuesday down 100 from the previous Friday, Wednesday down 150, Thursday up 200, and Friday up 100.
Well that seems pretty clear, we're either going to go up or down from here (although I do have an alternative pattern where we go down or up from here <ggg>).
I think the chart is unpredictable, with a slight bias (slightly uptrending MACD, momentarily uptrending Stochastic, slightly positive CMF, and price above the 20 day MA) towards the upside.
On the Weekly, the two and half year downtrend is intact, for now. I'd give this one, a bias to the downside.
IMO, the Dow remains unpredictable.
The Nasdaq Composite Sell Signals
On the Daily, you can clearly see the support at 100 point intervals; 1700, 1600, 1500.
Are we going to break below 1400?
It seems possible, especially if we break decisively below 1600.
I am being exceedingly cautious with tech stocks.
On the Weekly, you can see we are right at that April 2000 low.
The ADX is flat. The MACD and Stochastic aren't giving clear signals, IMO. MACD looks like it's turning down, but not convincingly, yet. Stochastic has been bearish and falling, but it's entering the oversold region.
The Nasdaq is clearly in a downtrend.
Until it begins an uptrend, investing in tech is investing against the trend. That's like picking a spot on the tracks and betting the train will stop before it hits you. You'll feel great if you're right.
The TSE300 Sell Signals
On the Daily, you can clearly see the downtrend we are in.
This seems somewhat surprising given the recent strength in some sectors.
The rising ADX and falling MACD don't look bullish.
On the Weekly, you can see the very thin Sell Signal, but it is a Sell Signal, and like the Nasdaq Weekly Sell Signal, it's been dangerous to ignore these Weekly Sell Signals. The last confirmed Sell Signal was in September 2000.
ADX falling and Stochastic showing a sell.
Time to be selective, cautious, and nimble, IMO.
Cash will still be cash in three months time.
Cush |
