gem-x's Elliott Wave Forecast: Feb 22 02
Another upward channel break followed by a fast vicious sell off in the last hour...how many times have we seen this the past two months? And to rub more more salt in the wound for the bulls, it was another failed morning star reversal. (every time I've sent one of those timely intraday "uh oh, channel break" e-mails, I've shorted the QQQ's, today was no different. I short the QQQ's because during corrections, certain stocks may not follow the index. The channel break occured around 1:55PM today.) I want to apolgize for typing in "1947" instead of "1747" (.618 fibonacci retrace of 1729 to 1777) in that intraday e-mail today....I''ve gotten too used to the NASDAQ being in the 1900's, but I'm sure it wasn't a huge stumbling block.
It looks like my most bearish scenario is unfolding, which is the test of 1659 (.618 Fibonacci level)/1695-1700, lasting 53-55 days.
Like I said in the e-mail I sent on the 19th, the "previous Wave 4" in my count from Sept to Dec was in October at 1646. Usually corrections terminate at this point, and it sure needs to do it now. Today was the 52nd day of the correction, and the rally from Sept-Dec lasted 53-55 days or to be more exact, 53 days. If this correction lasts longer than 55-57 days (the 1998 correction from 2033 to 1357 lasted 57 days), this could last another 34+ days for 89 total like in May 2001-Sept 2001 when the NASDAQ dropped from 2328 to 1387.. (and when the NASDAQ went from 4200+ to 2251 in 89 days in the summer of 2000 to Jan 2001), drop to the .78 retracement level, and even possibly take out 1387...but what event could possibly be worst than 9/11? This would make absolutely no sense....
Here's the my count of the NASDAQ from Sept up to now, explaining 1646 as the possible termination point of this correction:
(if this link doesn't work, go to: photos.yahoo.com -the photo is called "618")
photos.yahoo.com
Here's my 10 day count...the move down is just one huge "sonic crash wave" waterfall drop. All I can say about this count, is...it's just incredibly tough to count when the upward corrections are very very tiny. The only obvious upward correction occured from 1729 to 1777, and I sure hope it was Wave 4 instead of Wave 2. What I'm seeing tomorrow is a Wave 4 and Wave 5 down targeting 1685-1695....if 1685 gets taken out, we'd close in on the "NO CROSS ZONE" of 1646/1659...I wouldn't like the odds of major reversal or the 1387 level holding should 1646/1659 get taken out, and if this correction lasts more than 57 days.
photos.yahoo.com
From the night of Feb 18th:
" Another scenario I was looking for was for the NASDAQ to retrace to 1659/1700, or around the .500/.618 Fibonacci level, in an equal amount of time that it rose (53-55 days). After the Great Depression crash wave, and rally from the low, from 1932 to 1937, the Wave 2 correction took an equal amount of time to correct. After the large rally from those lows, the correction that followed retraced to the .618 fibonacci support level, lasting from 1937 to 1942. And so far, the NASDAQ from 5133 to 1387 has acted like the Great Depression crash wave....The "C" Wave down on the zigzag from 4252 to 1387 was 1.382 X the length of the wave "A", as was the "C" wave in the Great Depression zigzag. A lot of what I'm looking at is the comparison between those two periods. Both the drop on the NASDAQ and the DOW in 1929-1932 were zigzags, and if all the other heavily bearish biased "e-wavers" are going to count it as "1-2-3-4-5" , be my guest. &n
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