The rally during December was an overshoot above the target I had from September (if memory serves, I had a 1793 top by mid November with a possible overshoot to 1940, both proved conservative, or wrong), so we already had the bottom, and what did not "appear" was the early retest of the September bottom (just to the mid 1600 was the initial scenario) by late December. Mind, you, at the time, I had a "to da moon" scenario if we got that early correction, but a nasty top in January if we did not. We did not get that retest (and I am finished eating crow on that bad call <g>), but we sure got the alternative (which was described in the Dec 29th scenario) in spades.
At any point in time, there is always a "what if the market teaches us another lesson in humility"? Namely an alternative scenario to the main scenario. Like Friday, I had "IF" we close under 1690, "Then" we have a good probability of a black Monday. I don't often know ahead of time which part of the fork is going to be taken by the market. It is actually quite rare that I say "BUY, BUY, BUY", or like earlier this week "Run for the hills". Most of the time, we all "muddle through".
Zeev |
