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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: TobagoJack who wrote (15485)2/23/2002 8:36:25 PM
From: Maurice Winn  Read Replies (2) of 74559
 
<a taunt from you in New Zealand to me in Trinidad?!>

Yes Jay, and great fun it was too. I had to hurry and enjoy gloating rights because I wasn't sure how long my luck would hold. Sure enough, the very next day I got my comeuppance as QUALCOMM made a multiyear low [$31.50]. One must be quick to enjoy fleeting opportunities for fun in today's world.

< Maurice, in your case, you are simply having fun, cheering for what you know cannot be.>

Well, fun is available at any price in any market and it'll be a black and cold day in hell when I'm convinced that what I want cannot be. That's because I only bet on and work for what I think can be.

However, you gave me a little frisson of excitement when you mentioned Japan withdrawing their funds. It made me remember that half a decade ago, Japan decided to globalize and that will surely have involved vast investments all around the globe [such as in the Nasdaq and possibly even in QUALCOMM]. If they have run into financial problems, they will feel or be obliged to sell their Nasdaqian stock to satisfy their Japanese creditors. That would explain little glitches like a new low in QCOM while CDMA subscribers and revenues rapidly increase. It actually makes me frissonic [a euphemism for scared witless]. I do not like big ugly monsters appearing where I didn't expect them. Especially if they are looking at me and drooling. And there are no bars on their cage.

So, is this a real boogeyman or is it my imagination? Do Japanese own more QCOM [and other Nasdaq stocks; they move together, so it doesn't matter whether they own no QCOM] than I would find a pleasant recognition and due adulation of Mighty Q! and CDMA?

<Jay has long written off his 0.55% NAV allocated to GX bonds. You are adding?! Why, because you think there is nothing else to speculate on? >

Well, I've liked the idea of optical fibre for a few years. Since 1987 actually when I lived next to a solid-state physicist in Antwerp who had a friend with a fibre factory in Belgium and I was involved with moving lots of information around the world in BP Oil. Way back in 1980 I was arguing with BP management that anything that didn't need to go in a wheelbarrow should be on computers and whizzing through wires [fibres coming a bit later]. BP moved slowly! [Like governments and other large companies].

I also did some stochastic linear regression analysis of inverted double-bottom candlestick formations with BigMacDee standard deviations in Fourier transform algorithms against Gaussian price variability funds flow and decided that if I wanted to get GX debt gloating rights over you, I'd better hurry up and buy.

I'm not adding to my little Tonka Truck full of Global Crossing and Globalstar Senior Notes. I have quite enough for gloating purposes thanks. Also, the broker insists on getting money in exchange for said Senior Notes. While Uncle Al is pixelating more and more of said US$, he doesn't deliver them to my account for some reason, even though I'm one of his biggest fans.

That's a serious question about Japanese ownership of US stocks and the prospects of them repatriating the residual value of their shares [to satisfy their debts]. If anyone has an answer, I'd appreciate it!

Mqurice

PS: Your Trinidadian adventure seems an excellent change from the vertical jungle of Hong Kong. Yet cyberspace is right there too! People do seem to like fibre, photons, phones and cyberspace.
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