Gary:
thanks for looking into this issue from a TA perspective.
at least from a point (as opposed to a percentage) perspectve, this stock seems to be, in any event, significantly closer to a bottom than to a top. it is difficult to pinpoint either extreme regardless of what analysis one applies in attempting to do so. with a strong balance sheet, and with seeming undervaluation as indicated by my recent post pointing to most ratios indicating such. panic does not seem to be called for. I am considering placing stops on part of my position, though I have not decided as of yet.
with such a small float, and relatively obscure, issue such as this (nowhere near the volumue of an Applix, for example, in either absolute volume or as a percentage of the total float), price swings are often exaggerated in both directions which many times presents opportunities.
regardless of the initiation and expiration dates of the mentioned options awards, it must be considered in the interest of management to see the stock perform well. also, like Applix, I consider IQ to be a prime takeover candidate as web-based technolgy comes into its own. a projected takeover price of at least twice book would seem to indicate that at current levels IQ is relatively low risk over time.
as for the current weakness, it is difficult to read anything conclusive into it. for one thing their quarter has not ended yet. I have seen no negative news since the last earnings release to account for the weakness. even if the weakness is the result of "someone knowing something," at these levels I do not feel that IQ even needs to make estimates of $.12 to justify this price. if they make any profit at all, then they will be adding to an already strong b/s and cash position. it would also seem unusual to me for them to have a terrible quarter on the heels of one that showed such a strong sequential performance.
later in the year. Live-Web might very begin to make a meaningful contribution. information that I saw would seem to indicate that it is already serving the company well as a door-openner to other products. also, as previously stated, the Remedy partnering agreement looks most encouraging.
again, Gary, thanks so much for your time in analysising this issue. It is most appreciated.
as always,
best regards. |
