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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical Analysis- Indicators & Systems
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To: Jack Landis who wrote (1911)7/6/1997 4:07:00 PM
From: gonzongo   of 3325
 
To all those who will be attending TAINJ (or others if you want to chime in)....There are
a lot of bright people trying to find the perfect system.You know the one with no losses
tha buys at the very bottom and sells at the very top.Well there aint no
such animal and all we can do is work toward this goal.
Yes Jack - I agree. I have been system testing one indicator for a week now and seem to have gotten somewhere except maybe I have lost some sleep a job and a marriage in the process.
The process of finding and using the system we trust is hard work and then requires discipline.

What bothers me is that every approach and every improvement appears to be THE
answer.I believe we need a systematic testing system that compares all the systems
using a) the same stocks, b) the same time periods, c) in up markets and down.

right sir- I do this with WOW and suggest others follow suit. I am sure that system testing and it's shortfalls as well will be discussed by many of us at "dave's beach"(Marriot Courtyard poolside)

How does BNS compare with DNS. Is StocRsi better than Linear trend? Does Wtd
Stochastics (that I will present) provide leads for new approaches (which should then be
tested on the original set of stocks and times.
Since we all use the same raw data on prices (or volume) there is bound to be a high
correlation between the various approaches.
One problem we find is that different software has variances in formulas- for example- CCI in WOW is not the same as CCI in Metastock. I get an intermediate term indicator with one system in WOW and Richard Estes gets a short term indicator with the same system in metastock. The complexities of group tests are there. Many have group together to work through email or the SI threads on a new approach.

Probably the biggest factor that dictates
whether we win or lose this game is the psychological one....Do we obey the signals?
Building confidence in a system that has been proven to work for different stocks in
different markets can do this for us.

Yes that is the key- the quality of the system is 30% and the trader- 70%.

Do you agree with me? Should we run an extensive test of the sort I
propose? Lets discuss.

Probably a good topic for Dave's Beach.

andy
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