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To: DEM who wrote (1864)	2/24/2002 11:09:38 PM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) of 2290

Hi D, I find it very interesting that the 50 day average has crossed over and is now testing the 200 on the NAZ. I think it is only a natural test of the crossover to confirm that it is for real. So I'm not yet, quite so negative on the wave 5 down to newer lows - although I have no problem with the scenario being very possible. Also notice how the DOW had trouble getting over it's 200 ma as the NAZ flew over its. Now as the Dow prepares to pop over the 200 (on a cyclical stock rally), the NAZ suffers and shows weakness below the 200 ma.It is almost a mirror image! I would be more alarmed if all the indexes were in harmony.But I'm wondering if there isn't room for an index rotation here - all at different cycles.It will buy some time here for the economic recovery to gain some strength and bolster what now is at best some initial good data. As this data becomes less marked by crosscurrents and reinforced more by both high frequency data being confirmed by more by stable solid data of a long term basis - then the rotating indexes will have all caught up in a congestion pattern which melds the 50 day average with the 200 day average on all indexes and then we'll have a solid bull rally. Just as you short the qqq because some stocks don't participate in the down trend - so too we may view the indexes as they rotate along the averages. Could this possibly make up the time frame difference between 53-55 days and your 89 day doomsday scenario? From a sector perspective I see the telecoms and fiber component stocks going thru a vicious double bottom but yet some of the sectors which fell apart before these late rallying sectors (or shopuld I say last to fail sectors) are doing quite well. As you point out: Amat,Klac,Nvls,Cohu,Klic are doing quite well (their sector was the first to fall - (Oct 2000 it bottomed)- yet Nextel, Qwest,Wcom,Sprint PCS,JDSU are all just now being taken to new lows(they rallied as the semi equipment stocks fell - remember they were the last to be a haven of safe money.hehehe If the semi's are showing the way and the Dow is finally playing catch up - perhaps this is a rotational cycle that aligns all players(indexes /sectors) for a rather large wide breadth rally to take off in approximately 45 days - this seems to coincidently fit rather well with the expiration of the confessional pre-warnings season and the announcement of the actual earnings achievements of companies who may well confirm that this economy is in fact on the mend. Average earnings with increasing backlogs is all any market needs to turn its future view to a more positive view. If this is true then those stocks that are getting pummeled the most as a second dip and oh by the way they were the last to show weakness in the prvious top - well then they may well be the very best high percentage plays of the future. In particular I'm thinking JDSU,CIEN and NEWP are excellent candidates for a buy the dip aggressive play to focus on. Once again I greatly appreciate your sharing your hard work - it is wonderful to benefit from another student's so industrious viewpoint. I can't help but think that a rotation is more in line, than a collapse and any late sector weakness in the tech sector looks to be a great long term entry opportunity. JMHO Bob

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