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Strategies & Market Trends : Trading futures based on intermarket trends

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To: fut_trade who wrote (52)2/25/2002 3:51:34 AM
From: fut_trade   of 73
 
Inverse correlation between S&P 500 and the 30-Year Treasury Bond Yield

swcollege.com

The S&P500 and the 30-Year Treasury Bond Yield: Annual Percent Change Relative to Same Period Last Year
There is generally a strong inverse relationship between interest rates, such as the yield on the prominent 30-year U.S. Treasury bond, and stock prices, as indicated by the S&P 500 index. One can see in the diagram below that the periods of negative growth in the S&P 500 occurred when the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was rising. There are several reasons for this inverse relationship. For example, rising interest rates raise the cost of corporate borrowing and thus reduce corporate profits. Moreover, rising interest rates raise the opportunity cost of investing in stocks by increasing the return on bonds and other interest-bearing financial assets. More recently this inverse relationship has been less strong, in part because the yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond has been "artificially" lowered by the growing scarcity of these bonds as the federal government buys them back in the process of reducing the national debt. The exception is that both the S&P 500 and bond yields can fall during periods of sharp economic slowdown and recession, as can be seen most evidently in the middle months of 1982 and in the second and third quarters of 2001.
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