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Strategies & Market Trends : Precious Metals mutual funds (gold, silver, PGMs)
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To: Dan P who wrote (629)2/25/2002 11:39:53 AM
From: Larry S.  Read Replies (1) of 972
 
Dan,

FWIW, the original paper on the significance of the ratio is found at essextrading.com. As I have said many times before, it is not clear to me that the conclusions are based on data that is adequate to support them. However, since the ratio is simply a measure of optimism or pessimism and the markets are more likely to rise when pessimism is at an extreme, it must correlate with market price changes in general as suggested. The ratio is still in the strongly pessimistic range.

It might also be worth mentioning that the reason the ratio was brought up (originally by Richard and Paul), is that the GMI is based on stocks that are less dependent upon other minerals and less involved in hedging, making it a better GOLD mining index.

Cheers,
Larry
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