Charting Money: Dow Promising, Naz Not Delivering
25 Feb 12:00
By Stephen Cox, CMT
A Dow Jones Newswires Column
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up nearly 100
points at midday Monday, testing breakout resistance at 10043. All else equal,
this is the set-up for a renewed bull move.
The Nasdaq Composite on Friday recorded a bear market low of 1696.55,
practically at 1690.19 target support, and it's trading nearly 20 points higher
on the day at midday. That's also promising. But the Nasdaq is roughly 300
points below breakout resistance at 2034.55.
Evidently, not all else is equal - not until the two indexes have cleared
breakout resistance.
If the Dow clears 10043 on a close, the breakout is genuine. The point is
that upside progress is bound to be slow until DJIA and Nasdaq are in synch on
the upside. And there are literally an infinite number of ways that could
happen.
For example, note that the high for the Dow's uptrend since Sept. 21 is the
Jan. 7 high of 10300.15. Perhaps the Dow will mark time between 10043 and
10300.15 while the Nasdaq edges above 2034.55.
The danger for bullish observers is that the Dow could drop back to the lower
9800 handle to let Nasdaq catch up.
But now I'm not analyzing. I'm speculating.
Bonds Away!
More newsy, perhaps, is the fact that the CBOT nearby T-bond practically hit
target resistance at 105-16 on Friday.
Friday's high of 105-04 was shy of the target, and Friday's settlement of
103-19 was near the bottom of the day's high-low range. That's all typical of a
topped-out market.
A technical breakdown will be confirmed by a settlement below moving average
support at 103-25. In that case the U.S. 10-year yield will headed headed
toward resistance at 4.946%.
To try out the new Charting Markets weekly technical newsletter go to
djnewswires.com
For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Telerate, page
4073; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "Charting Markets." CQG
key word search "Charting".
-By Stephen Cox, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-2064; stephen.cox@dowjones.com
(Stephen Cox, a chartered market technician, is chief technician for Dow
Jones Newswires.)
(Data by CSI, Commodity Research Bureau)
(END) DOW JONES NEWS 02-25-02
12:00 PM |
