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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 259.92

-1.1%

Dec 30 3:59 PM EST

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To: advocatedevil who wrote (60958)	2/25/2002 5:27:36 PM
From: Sam Citron	Read Replies (1) of 70976

The major hit I took today shook my confidence and I'll probably avoid trading for the time being. Here's a chance for some reflection and maybe even a bit of insight. I don't mean this to sound like one of those depressing woulda coulda shoulda posts and I was out for most of the day, but here's what I did not understand: I watched as you put on a very well-timed short play early in the morning. You shorted at about 2 cents from the high point of the second spike of the morning and within 5 minutes were sitting on paper gains of over 2 thousand dollars. At that point the trend changed and it was an up-escalator from there on. I have seen you do quick round trips and would have expected you to sniff the trend change and take your profits. But you did not. Missed opp #1 Then, I have seen you miraculously convert losers into near break-even winners, and you had a chance to do just that between 10:30-10:40 EST, but no. Missed opp #2. From then on it was "ad astra per aspera", or, to the stars and beyond. Questions: What happened? Did you step out at the wrong time? Is it easier for you to sniff out ST tops than ST bottoms? Did you become so confident that AMAT wanted to head lower that you missed out on the changes in the shortterm trend today? [If so, please share your insight as to why AMAT "should" be at 40 instead of 45.] I didn't think scalpers were supposed to have biases. I thought it was mainly a pure technical reading of the charts, sniffing out tops, bottoms, and inflection points--pattern recognition. Is the intraday AMAT chart not the main source of data that influences your trading strategy? If not, what is? I know that you have your own unique style and that you are influenced quite heavily by your read of fundamentals as well as ST events. Therefore I am most curious about the commitment that you demonstrated today to the bear case. Hope tomorrow is a better day for you. Sam

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