"I had never known of any trader or any method that worked that was not so simple it appeared stupid."
I myself aim for something fairly simple also, but lots of things that start out fairly simple can become amazingly complex very quickly... I start with something similar to what you described, I think, that I call a "probability framework" or "probability frame," as defined by whatever in-play price levels. It may sound highfalutin but is pretty straightforward.
On the other hand, if you throw in a little tape-reading and just a little pattern-recognition and maybe a little attention to price levels in the major indices and maybe a little attention to secondary support and resistance levels... and major MAs and major support and resistance... and throw in a glance or two or maybe another at the TICK and/or the TIKQ and/or the Futures... and then there are whatever ideas, patterns, or other indications that got you trading whatever you happen to be trading... and then there are whatever peculiar dynamics of whatever trading platform you happen to be using... not to mention position size and slippage and stop placement and margin... Island, ECN-only, "market," enter on a stop or a pullback... and so on and so on... whatever it is, it's not really simple anymore...
I wonder if you've ever taken a look at TraderAlan's approach. Alan, at least, claims that it works - better than ever - and I don't think you can call it simple. The ad copy for the Daily Swing Trader almost brags about how complicated the method is. |
