It interested me to compare AMAT's Annual report of 2001 (just received) with the one of 1996 in regards to the previous 5 year financial results.
Reported results in 1996 report (split adjusted):
Year, EPS
1992, 0.07
1993, 0.15
1994, 0.325
1995, 0.64
1996, 0.82
Reported results in 2001 report:
1997, 0.68
1998, 0.35
1999, 0.91
2000, 2.40
2001, 0.60
If you take away the bubble year of 2000, earnings were essentially flat over the most recent 5 year time period whereas in the previous 5 year period, earnings typically doubled year after year. 2002, unfortunately, will only make it harder to see any growth in these annual figures.
Despite this, AMAT is trading today at a much higher valuation based on earnings (either current, forecast or based on previous peak earnings), sales, or book value than it did 5 years ago. And if you remember 5 years ago we were not hoping for a robust rebound a year away, we were experiencing a full-blown recovery with earnings well on there way to a complete recovery until the Asian Crisis cooled things off.
AMAT probably cannot repeat the glory years of the early 1990's. The question is will the market start to doubt the ability of AMAT to show any kind of consistent growth in the next 5 years given the sporadic results of the last 5 years. |
