Hi DJ, Oops, I changed my mind. Not about the global aggregate state of the economy, and not about the coming PAIN, but about Vacation Chronicles having ended:0)
My Chinese cousin and I went out to San Fernando, the heart of Trini petroleum industry. Maurice, it was glorious, with tank farms dotting the land, flame throwing chimneys throwing energy into the air, and hundreds of thousands of red, black, multihued birds walking about the greenery.
We were able to locate one 92-year old man in his office to tell us the location of my grandfather’s house of birth. The 92-year old had lived on the same street for, well, I guess 92 years.
We also visited my nephew, a product of of my Chinese cousin and his Japanese (from Japan, as opposed to the Elmat referenced Brazilian variety) wife, is building an enormous motor catamaran in a building not far from my grandfather’s place. ACF Mike, check www.cislmarine.com from time to time in case you or someone you know is in the market for a new boat when the gloom and doom I sense fails to materialize. The four ‘ensuite’ boat will be ready in June/July and if you are right about the economy, it should sell for USD 1 cool one, fully equipped. The bridge, high above all the nooks and crannies, is now taking shape, and reminds me of Starship Enterprise; and if you are wrong, the theory is that the boat market is immune from recession and shielded from depression.
Of course, if Maurice is spot on about CO2 and Snowshoe is correct about a flooded Trini, the boy may need the boat for himself, plus his English wife and four indeterminate kids. But Maurice is right about the Trini mountains, even as Snowshoe is correct about the Trini plains, but given the population density, no one need to move anywhere. BTW, Snowshoe, I saw no erosion and have heard no complaints. My grandfather’s house is as near the water as it was 92 years ago, judging by the photos.
My nephew was a geologist, but decided to make his hobby a fulltime occupation 30 months ago. His action gives me something to dwell on and chew over. I need to figure out what my hobby is first; maybe a mixture of hottub, calypso, and companionship.
We had dinner with my mostly English cousin and her husband and I explored the possibilities of Trini investment to ride on the backs of the expected gas boom. The husband imports dry and wet foods onto the island, feeds the petroleum workers on the rigs, develops villa complexes, and the cousin runs a swimming program for the international schools.
It appears that Trini may hold some opportunities:
(a) Unemployment is 10-12% but no one starves and no one complains
(b) Floating currency is relatively stable, with upward bias but not ‘allowed’ to appreciate against the USD
(c) Inflation of food, energy, Toyotas, and services is zip so far
(d) Energy is cheap
(e) Policy making is dead-locked
(f) Deposit rate is 4-5%
(g) Mortgage borrowing rate is 12%
(h) A USD 700k small office building 5 years ago is worth USD 2 mm today (inflation?!)
(i) The rental yield is north of 15%
(j) There are about 25-30 listed companies, and quite a few are honest, paying high dividends as a percentage of earnings
Elmat, compare and contrast, and capital will migrate from Hong Kong to Trinidad, and, to get at the gas, from the US to San Fernando:0)
I will try to figure out what the catch is tonight from a cousin who runs one of the largest financial outfits in the region, and I must tell my Taiwan friends about the downstream abracadabra opportunities from natural gas in Trinidad.
Chugs, Jay |
