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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting
QCOM 177.78-2.2%Jan 9 9:30 AM EST

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To: foundation who wrote (19591)2/26/2002 8:30:22 AM
From: foundation  Read Replies (1) of 197146
 
Demand for 3G mobile seen keen post September 11
By Reuters staff

26 February 2002



Heightened security concerns and a brake on staff air travel since the September
11 attacks should ensure that progress in new mobile technology remains intact
despite spending cutbacks, an industry think tank said.

The UMTS Forum said in a report published on Tuesday that while operator
investments in third-generation (3G) mobile services could slow in the short term as
a result of the attacks, which have exacerbated economic gloom, it saw no
long-term impact.

"We are not changing our numbers which may seem surprising, but our
observations show people are using cellphones more and travelling less. This could
offset some of the economic gloom," said Bernd Eylert, chairman of the
independent research body.

A study of whether the attacks would alter market forecasts concluded that
demand for mobile services like video teleconferencing and downloading data from
company Intranets will accelerate, given the decline in business air travel.

"There will be two early drivers of 3G services -- the general public pushing for
multimedia messaging and businesses wanting to get Intranet and Extranet
services on cellphones to give them a mobile office," said Forum spokesman Chris
Solbe.

The study follows last week's mobile phone industry congress in Cannes where
speakers threw off the doom and gloom of 2001 and the hype of 2000 and focused
on the multimedia message services that are expected to drive 3G.

The UMTS Forum predicts a slow start to the 3G market.

It expects that even in 2010 only a third of mobile subscribers will use 3G services,
which include always-on access to the Internet and the ability to download video
clips, sound and pictures and send them from phone to phone.

It predicts that ordinary voice phone calls will still account for a quarter of 3G
revenues by that date.

The Forum recently trimmed its long-term 3G revenue forecasts by around one
percent to reflect the current industry downturn, but it still values the overall 3G
market at around one trillion euros over this decade.

"We think the opportunities remain the same; it will just be a slower start," said
Solbe. "Video telephony is going to be one of the key drivers of 3G."

Most mobile operators, many of whom have had to rein in their spending on 3G
after racking up huge debts on acquisitions and obtaining licences to operate
UMTS mobile technology, expect to roll out 3G services next year, but do not see
a mass 3G market before 2004 or later.

totaltele.com

==========

Well.... now even the UMTS Forum has embraced IJ's predictions of a year ago.

Will it take the UMTS Forum another year to confirm IJ's 2002 comments... that GPRS won't fly?

<ggg>
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