Chart Chat & Chew...
> If [OEX-100] pops to the up side it translates to 597; The only problem with this is the green downtrend line which is at ~580 or so...
...imho, the green DownTrend Line is invalid.
consider NYA.X - NYSE Composite Index fwiw, as in some respects, this chart is easier to read.
Today/Tomorrow, the market must challenge 580~582 area, an apparent DownTrend Line (similar to your 'green line') which represents a projection from the tops CLOSE 21-MAY-01 and 04-JAN-02. If we can't push through this resistance, we'll collapse back to the tangle of 21d/50d/100d EMA lines centered on NYA ~575 +/-20 pivot that we've been meandering through since Halloween.
Then, apparent near target is NYA 588~595; at NYA 600, we've hit what appears to be an upper UpTrend channel line...
...there is an apparent UpTrend "channel" of sorts formed after 9-11; connect CLOSE 31-OCT and 07-FEB to see the lower channel ~ then make a parallel line to this major SUPPORT and just drop it up there on the TOPS...
...say, the TOPS 26-NOV and 05-DEC and 28-DEC~04-JAN...
...this is where P/E valuations, whatever ~ have tended to motivate folks to unroll long positions: iow, NYA ~600 is my target, fwiw.
_
so, I sold bonds, went long StockFund on Friday @ MKT On Close; my allocation is 80:20 = STOCKS:BONDS
trading all kinds of stuff, most of it on the long side ~ I eliminated REI and have several different CALL positions; largest STOCK trading position is in BCE, and with my "background" StockFund long position ~ I'm being a little less ruthless with my trading STOPs, which were extremely tight.
IMHO, many sectors ~ this is just a dead cat splatz, while other sectors are really UpTrending ~ not just UpWaving ...still quite tricky until we get the greedy/fearful retail investors/traders back into the market: we need VOLUME (more suckers ;-)
...without their "mo", fund in-flows ~ the only 'market leadership' will again be (purely technical flux) the sharks in Chicago (VIX.X) and New York (PUT:CALL) and we'll all be back in ruthless trader mode :-/
-Steve |
