>>But what makes the 2000s different from the 1930s<<
tom, didn't mean to compare now to the 30s. i sure hope we don't see anything near that!
>>we are not having bank failures, we do not have a major recession, and we do not have high unemployment.<<
tom, i think we are in an era of unprecedented book cooking and number manipulation - from the top of the govt down to the worker bee. i would not be surprised if another ltcm appears out of nowhere... just like ltcm did.
i'm watching employment w/ a hairy eyeball. my hope is that it levels off for a bit. the positive spiral that led to naz 5k took years. japan's crash has been a grinding decade - and they still aren't out.
i'm just uncomfortable that our stock bubble somehow will not have serious repercussions even though it was probably the biggest on record. i don't expect an answer soon (i hope this time IS different!). that is one reason i'm cautious.
>>Overall, for 26 years, Cambiar had an average return of about 20%.<<
that's pretty awsome!
>>Would you think it is most wise to be in cash, or in a portfolio that is 40% Cambiar, 30% Kayne Anderson (small to midcap growth), 25% bonds, 5% international? I have a lot a stake here, and don't want to be wrong. Any help you can offer would be appreciated.<<
a couple points...
1. i tell which one is wiser at the end of the year! ;-) seriously, i don't know which is better. heck, the portfolio could zoom 50%, you could sell and then it might topple 90%. i've seen stranger things.
2. wrt cambiar, their performance has been stellar. but that isn't the point. what will their performance be like in the future. i don't know 'em, but i may check 'em out. if you are comfortable then it is right for you. is cambiar a mufu? otherwise, 40% in a single company is a high percent. you gotta love 'em (value and business) to take on that much risk.
3. wrt your portfolio, only you can make choice that is right for you. my personal view is that one ought not risk more than they feel comfortable losing. if my few small caps go to $0, i wouldn't be happy, but my lifestyle wouldn't change.
4. wrt having a lot at stake - you are one of the lucky ones! :-) don't forget to keep perspective. life is good! :-) |
