For most affected companies, SAB 101 went into effect in Q4 of 2000, that also happens to coincide with a rash of profit warnings which occurred at the same time. All available economic data at the time was not only favorable, but rock solid. Unemployment was low, productivity was high, consumer confidence was at record levels, etc. In other words, there was absolutely NOTHING to suggest economic weakness in the US, EXCEPT the sudden rash of profit and revenue warnings.
Tim, I don't find it strange that the economy looked fine EXCEPT for the profit warnings suddenly coming out in Q4.....isn't that to be expected? Private companies are on the front lines of the economy.....I would think they would be some of the first to notice a problem.
At the time, my gripe was that right up to the Q4 profit warnings, many CEOs were talking like the boom was going very strong and was not likely to quit. Then suddenly, it's as if business fell off a cliff. Was it that, or the new SAB 101 law, or the lack of visibility and too much hubris? I tend to think it was mostly the latter as evidenced by Chambers of CSCO who kept saying right through Dec. into early January that everything was fine at CSCO. However, at the end of January, he too had to change course and admit that things were slowing down.
ted
By mistake, I initially made this post to the thread to which that you linked us. <g> |
