Hi Shirley, I thought I'd address your points.
"Forecross is not the only one anymore".
My original statement is still true, it is the only company on a Canadian exchange that has produced a tool that automates the conversion, not just the scanning for potential problems. Furthermore, Forecross licenses its tools to services companies (similar to GPW) and collects revenue from them as well.
"earnings of 6 million a year"
Earnings = profit, so profit of 6 million noted.
"Revenue to the end of 1996 was over $6 million"
Revenue = total amount collected. You quote $6 million for both revenue and earnings - this is clearly impossible. If it's profit, it should seel for at least $30 a share; if simply earnings, then I don't have a clue as to value.
>> has exclusive rights to a software program designed to handle the Year 2000 problem on all AS/400 computer systems in Canada and the Western United States.
It would be interesting to know whose tool - maybe even Forecross'!
"In Canada there are approx 5000 AS/400 mainframe computers and 7000 in California alone."
AS/400 is a niche market. I prefer to invest in companies that are able to address a broader range of platforms.
>> 7) The company is one of the largest and most successful of its kind in Western Canada
This may be true but it surely isn't alone. Systemhouse, DMR, Ernst & Young, Deloitte & Touche, CGI Group, LGS Group etc have a major presence in Western Canada
"and has a broad development environment, being able to handle AS/400 systems, UNIX, Windows, Novell, Progress, Oracle and MS Access."
Shirley, most students with one year in a community college can probably claim experience this "broad". Windows ?????
8) The Year 2000 issue alone is one of the hottest areas in the entire
technology sector with market capitalizations running at astronomical
levels based upon future earnings potential.
This is true but you have to choose your picks carefully. Here's a guy who invested in last year's hot Year2000 stock.
techstocks.com
A second example is Toronto-based TPII - it had a couple of runups on hype and now sits at $0.85 or so.
>> With GPW's reputation, association with IBM, and one of the Premier Tools in the Industry for solving these problems, the stock price potential is terrific.
This may be true but again the TPII example is relevant. They have access to one of the best tools (IBS's) and an association with Oracle, IBM and now Systemhouse. Great potential but stock will sit at $0.85 or so until they can show significant contracts.
The long and short of it is that Year2000 is not a guarantee to instant wealth. If GPW was a good company before this IPO, they should continue to do well. unless customers in western Canada prefer to stick with the major consulting firms with a breadth of experience beyond AS/400. |
