I am struggling greatly with max pain this month.
If we get there it will be forced. A series of gap ups perhaps.
There is no volume on the rises but there was heavy selling of the futures on the consumer sentiment numbers this morning.
Trin was bearish all day indicating selling.
In fact, the only positive day for the TRIN that I remember recently was yesterday. Did some fund have a buy program on yesterday?
My two targets for pain are 37 and 39.
If we get to the latter it will be very painful for the bears.
The DOW is going up, the S &P has been going sideways, and the Naz has been the weak link. I think manipulation is propping up the DOW, but in spite of that it could not close green today.
GOLD is rocking and the markets clearly are not healthy.
Looking ahead to April, there are no options on anything. Quite amazing. Very very very low volume on the QQQ's and most everything else. Right now, we have heavy puts on the March QQQ's that I think they would like to take out (unless they stay hedged). Did they cover Friday and Yesterday and go long?
Then, from an option standpoint, April could go either way.
If we struggle and barely make it to 36 or 37 on the Q's, we might just go into the toilet in Late March and April.
In short, untile we see how this expiry plays out, there really is no clear picture. If we head down and take out the lows now, it could get real real ugly due to delta hedging. If the rise can be delayed until after March expiry, there will be few CALLs to worry about on the way back up. hmmmm
M |
