mind, i asked a question in 1997/ 1998 as the bubble insanity heated up.
"where is all the rational analysis?" the answer i received was that rational analysis and a bubble could not co-exist.
well, the bubble was truth, so rational analysis must have been in a neighboring count!
i can't speak to your skills. i didn't intend to call them in question at all. we've reached different conclusions for this point in time and i've already admitted that i may be on the *wrong* side.
however, i do want to address the *credentials* issue. credentials don't mean crap to me b/c i've seen very smart folks pawn off pure bs as *analysis* and they had better *credentials* than you (and yours are good! ;-)! no, i'm not easily impress as nearly all the *credentialed experts* supported the bubble valuations and found ways to justify them! a ditch digger didn't come up with page views as a metric - an mba or accounting person did. a dishwasher didn't develop pro form (hypothetical) earnings to tout to the masses while submitting entirely different numbers to the sec.
now, don't take offense, i'm speaking generally. i will value your input based on the power of your ideas. i'm not like those clowns on the fedex commercial who ignore the idea of a worker and love the same idea from the boss and then haggle over the hand motion (very funny commercial b/c it carries a lot of ugly truth).
i think your approach is very reasonable given you aren't as cautious as myself *right now*.
my view is rather simple. in all of human history, i am not aware of any bubble that ended without some serious tough love. not one. of course, they never went from peak to trough instantaneously - it took time. from peak to trough, all sorts of arguments were made to justify the then current situation. will it happen again? maybe, maybe not. jusr b/c it has happened every time in human history doesn't mean it will happen here. right now, it is a risk i'm not willing to take in a big way. i'm about 20% invested in 5 smaller caps. that's all the exposure i want right now. IF this time is similar to 100% of all historical bubble situations then i *know* i'll have the cash to weather the bad times. this is a very comforting feeling.
when i'm more comfortable with valuations relative to future prospects, i may re-enter the market in force using professional help.
if i had a few mil sitting in an account somewhere, i'd be more aggressive in the market now! :-)
>>So hopefully, this provides some insight into why I chose to go with one. Best of luck to you Skeeter!<<
i have a pretty good feel for what you are doing and it seems very reasonable and rational to me. i also have some manager ideas to research. ;-) just b/c it isn't what i'm doing *now* doesn't mean it is wrong in my book, just different. heck, i already admitted there is a great chance your approach outperforms mine. heck, if i had your finances i might be doing something very similar to what you are doing - there are so many variables to consider.
i'd like to get in a situation where my employer provides mucho options so i get all the market upside w/o risking any downside. that is a win/win, imho. we'll see what happens... i have a decent options package now, but i'm not sure they will be worth much in the future. |
