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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation
CRSP 54.74+4.1%Jan 21 3:59 PM EST

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To: software salesperson who wrote (5766)2/27/2002 8:33:10 PM
From: scaram(o)uche  Read Replies (3) of 52153
 
Really good stuff, thanks.

You're certainly correct to focus on safety, and enbrel is looking pretty good.

If a patient is P plus PA, a physician certainly could prescribe a new biologic that was only approved for P.

>> solution: enbrel <<

My bias is that an effective agent that acts "centrally" (i.e., removes or otherwise neutralizes the effector cell) will -- all other issues equal, particularly tox issues -- be the better therapeutic over time.

Penetration against enbrel might be tough, and it would take a couple of years to get the long-term perspective, but it's a battle worth engaging. I wouldn't assume that AMGN has a lock.

>> solution: enbrel + new biologics <<

I see no reason why this can't be "new biologic", period.

>> a homogenous 500,000 US moderate/severe <<

So, from your information, we can assume approximately a heterogeneous million, worldwide? Was the $2-3 billion estimate for U.S. only?
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