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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation
CRSP 57.87+5.7%10:23 AM EST
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To: scaram(o)uche who wrote (5768)2/28/2002 1:29:03 AM
From: software salesperson  Read Replies (1) of 52153
 
1. while it is certainly possible that one of the new biologics will be found to be efficacious against PA, i don't recall seeing any info from either bgen or dna/xoma along those lines. my focus was 2006 since most of the analysts use that timeframe in their forecasts. remicade with mtx will not amount to much competition. thus, i believe that enbrel will maintain a stranglehold over the biologic competition for PA through 2006.

another point to bear in mind is that alice gottlieb is a thought-leader in the P community. so when she prescribes enbrel for P, her colleagues will listen.

2. the $ 2-3 B estimate was for US alone.

3. i have not seen any info on the non-US patient population. your estimate of 1 M seems reasonable.

4. one conclusion that can be drawn from my analysis is that any company which is counting on their product(except enbrel) to become a $ 500 M drug by 2006 in order to satisfy their business plan objectives is in for a rather rude awakening.

sales
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