4Q GDP Likely To Be Revised Upward
By Allen Sykora
futuresource.com
Chicago, Feb. 27 (OsterDowJones) - Most economists are looking for an uptick in fourth-quarter gross domestic product when the Department of Commerce issues its first revision on Thursday.
Contacts mainly cited the impact of retail-sales and trade-balance data that are included in the report, which were either revised upward or released after the preliminary fourth-quarter GDP estimate came out at the end of last month.
The consensus estimate of economists surveyed by OsterDowJones is for an annual rate of 1.0% GDP growth in the fourth quarter, compared to the previously reported 0.2% increase. The data is due out at 8:30 ET.
"We expect it to be revised upward," said Gus Faucher, senior economist with Economy.com. "We continue to think that if the economy is not in recovery, it's certainly very close to recovery. And as we get more data, it will continue to show that things are improving."
"We are looking for some sort of upward revision," said Dana Johnson, managing director and head of research with Banc One Capital Markets. "It could be up right around 1% or something like that. It looks like most of the things that have come out since last month - inventories, sales and trade -
all argue for an upward revision."
Jonathon Basile, economist with Credit Suisse First Boston, pointed out that if the GDP number remains in positive territory, as expected, then the contraction in the U.S. economy will only have been for one quarter. Third-
quarter GDP ended down 1.3%.
"The bottom line is that it looks like the recession will only have had one negative quarter of growth," said Basile. "Other indicators are now turning higher."
The main factors that are seen pushing the fourth-quarter GDP estimate
higher, said Basile, was a narrower-than-expected trade deficit and upward
revision in retail sales. |
