Hi, Rob -
"The WLAN market as well as other areas of similar scale of circuit development has taught us to expect prices for chips to scale down as volumes scale up. Combining multi-mode radios on the same chip or chip sets has already been proven to be practical. There are no "show stoppers" only time and fitting the product to the particular demands of the market and not the other way around that will shape how this evolves."
Well...yes and no. There are no show stoppers in the technological sense. The old argument about economies of scale is a truth, defeated by another truth: balkanization of the marketplace defeats attempts to achieve economies of scale.
No technological show stoppers, but lots of alternatives: each one stealing market share from the other, further subdividing an already diverse market.
If a technology, or mix of technologies eventually does predominate, what price point do you think it would have to reach to penetrate the Third World? (Hint: look at a real cheap cell phone).
The whole mess is still a solution looking for a market, mired in commercial throat-cutting, regulatory labyrinths, spectrum inconsistencies, and standing on the shifting ground of constantly-changing technology.
If you're arguing that some of these advanced RF technologies deserve, and will find a place in the world, I agree.
If you're saying that one or two will soon emerge as victors over all their competitors, and gain huge commercial success, with the attendant attractive investment potential, I disagree.
It's still a snakepit, and will be for years, IMHO.
Best regards,
Jim |
