Mike, No doubt about it, it's a tough call for the general market going forward. There's certainly clears signs of improvement in the economy, but it's still early. So many stocks are already priced for recovery that a major move up seems unlikely. Yeah, inventories are burning off and replacement product will have to be bought, but the consumer is going to be hard-pressed to continue to spend more. The refinancing bonanza is mostly history now. The tax rebate checks are spent. New home purchases prompted by cheap rates appear to be slowing. Plenty of autos have already been purchased with incentives. What's left is an average consumer with plenty of debt, little chance of getting much of a raise or changing jobs, and without the ability to pull any more rabbits out of the hat. And then there's the corporations: They can't raise prices, short-term financing isn't getting cheaper, they need to cut costs to improve profits, capex spending continues to be restricted, and visibility is poor looking out more than a quarter. There may be plenty of money on the sidelines now, but I don't see it pouring back in any time soon. Mike, I remain on the dark side. The Devil's mask is getting a bit torn and tattered, but it still fits me right now.
AdvocateDevil |
