Mike, Looking at the chart, it looks more like the Nasdaq is headed down. I don't know whether the Nasdaq will be at 1,000 or 2,500 in 6 months, but I think that range will contain it. I am betting on upside for the Nasdaq right now.
I was just at a Best Buy and there seemed to be a lot of people in there. Maybe since most can't buy bandwidth, they are spending more on gadgets, and that is part of what made BBY take off in the last year. The gadgets are getting better all the time.
I agree, not the time to sell tech. On the next rally I will sell though. I think the Nasdaq could trade in the range of about 1600 to 2100 for quite a while, and I think the Dow will have trouble staying permanently above 10,000 during this time.
I think the last-mile bottleneck is going to be taken down in the next 2-3 years, and I expect telecom chip/equipment stocks - the survivors, to move quite a bit in advance of that. I don't know where the bottom is, but I plan to be onboard for that rise. Gadgets are great, but bandwidth is what is needed most, IMHO.
Having said all that, I plan to change my approach as needed, and I will checking here to see what you and other AMAT threaders think.
One last thing, the lastest Red Herring on the newstands (MSFT CEO shown in a dress) has a few interesting articles on the bandwidth issue. Gottfried recently mentioned this issue of Red Herring as well. Interesting reading.
John@longwait.com |
