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Strategies & Market Trends : E-Mini Pit

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To: SE who wrote (1961)	2/28/2002 10:40:02 PM
From: Dan Duchardt	Read Replies (2) of 11288

Scott, You must come to understand and accept that at any given moment you have no idea what the market will do. None. Once you do that you will be on your way to being a good trader. The key is finding a methodology that over a sample set of trades shows a profit. That is an edge and it means that if that setup occurs, the market is more likely to go in the direction you think it will go, than to go in the opposite direction. Does that mean it will? No. That is where step one comes in...realization that you have no idea what direction it will go. You can only put the odds in your favor and then let the market do what it will. In view of your attribution of this thought to someone else, I hope you will not take offense if I express my opinion that this is complete nonsense. This is not to say that there is no truth underlying the statement, but IMHO the statement totally misses the mark. The truth is that the market is not deterministic. One cannot say that every outcome of a particular setup will be the same, and one cannot enter a trade with the idea there is only one possible outcome. But that is a far cry from having "no idea" what the market will do under a certain set of conditions. I would offer that anyone who continues to trade having no idea what the market is going to do will NEVER be a good trader. The process of finding a methodology that puts the odds in ones favor is a process of developing an understanding of what the possible outcomes may be, and the ability to interpret the signals that either favor or disfavor the desired outcome as the market evolves. That interpretation involves the ability to filter out a lot of noise that tends to obscure those signals to the point where to those who have "no idea" the signals are completely invisible. To my mind, the "strong hands" mentioned by Nemer are those who have a very good idea of what the market will do before entering any trade, and the ability to filter out the noise that will chase away the weak hands who have no clue. Dan

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