What changed from Sept to Jan company wise is nothing really, they are seeing a slight slowdown and are much better off than most companies.
But as far as a trader or investor's point of view, it has changed totally. I don't want to own stock that under huge distribution with mass dumping at the bid like there was this am. Or mass block dumping like occurred after the earnings report. What's really changed is the chart! It tells the story.
I used to trade that stock 2 or 3 times a day. I have traded it once, as a swing trade, from late Dec to early Jan. I will be one of the first ones back in when the chart looks healthy and I see some institutions buying.
We will definitely rebound eventually, but there has been so much technical damage done, I think all rallies will be sold until the market can breakout and hold one of these rallies more than a hour. And then confirm it's for real.
And when this downtrend reverses, and it may be soon, the snapback will be one hell of a short squeeze because the nas is LOADED with shorts right here! You can feel it on any move up in the futures. And the heavily shorted stocks.
And at that point BEAS may be good for a day or too DCB trade. But only as a hold for strong-stomached bottom fishers with a ton of patience. Daily charts like that do not heal quickly...It may move up on a short squeeze, but it won't last until the chart is healthy again.
BTW, there is a descending wedge on the nas, targeting the approximate area of the 2/22 lows, which are the next test coming up to the downside...
Those are bullish, and tend to explode out of consolidations when near support, when least expected and when the market looks its worst. I'm watching it closely and will post when I see it break that downtrend line from yesterday's highs to the upside. And that descending wedge is part of a huge one that has been forming from the January highs. So it could get very interesting soon <g>
The market in general is no longer one market. We have a strong DOW, an OK S&P and a very sick nasdaq that is breaking down by the day as people dump tech and buy the "safe" stocks. |
