06:54am EST 28-Feb-02 Salomon Smith Barney (Jonathan Joseph +1-415-951-1887) AM
AMD: Company Reiterates Q4 Guidance
SALOMON SMITH BARNEY
Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD)
AMD: Company Reiterates Q4 Guidance 1S (Buy, Speculative)
Mkt Cap: $4,659.4 mil.
February 28, 2002 SUMMARY
* AMD yesterday reiterated its Q1 revenue guidance
SEMICONDUCTORS of about $900 million, and a small loss in Q1. We
Jonathan Joseph are forecasting a loss of $(0.08) on revenues of
+1-415-951-1887 $908 billion (-5% qoq and -24% yoy). No change to
jonathan.joseph@ssmb.com our estimates.
Ramesh Misra * We spoke with the company, which suggested the
+1-415-951-1883 processor business has been tracking to plan, which
is seasonally down, as has flash, also seasonally
down. Flash pricing has been down, but is declining
slower than in recent quarters.
* The company provided the latest processor roadmap,
with some pretty impressive claims for the Hammer
family, with a 2.8GHz (our estimate; their claim is
a 3.4GHz P4 equivalent) part shipping by the end of
2002. The product is currently sampling with key
customers.
* At the margin, the flash commentary was a little
more cautious than we would have thought, with "some
weeks good, some weeks bad", and a pickup expected
in 2H. MirrorBit flash is not yet shipping, but is
coming.
FUNDAMENTALS
P/E (12/02E) 137.0x
P/E (12/03E) 13.7x
TEV/EBITDA (12/02E) NA
TEV/EBITDA (12/03E) NA
Book Value/Share (12/02E) $10.45
Price/Book Value 1.3x
Dividend/Yield (12/02E) NA/NA
Revenue (12/02E) $4,004.7 mil.
Proj. Long-Term EPS Growth 15%
ROE (12/02E) 0.9%
Long-Term Debt to Capital(a) 15.9%
AMD is in the S&P 500(R) Index.
(a) Data as of most recent quarter
SHARE DATA . RECOMMENDATION
Price (2/26/02) $13.70 Current Rating 1S
52-Week Range $34.40-$7.93 Prior Rating 1S
Shares Outstanding(a) 340.1 mil. Current Target Price $25.00
Convertible No Previous Target Price $25.00
EARNINGS PER SHARE
FY ends 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Full Year
12/01A Actual $0.37A $0.05A ($0.28)A ($0.05)A $0.09A
12/02E Current ($0.08)E $0.00E $0.05E $0.13E $0.10E
Previous ($0.08)E $0.00E $0.05E $0.13E $0.10E
12/03E Current $0.18E $0.22E $0.26E $0.35E $1.00E
Previous $0.18E $0.22E $0.26E $0.35E $1.00E
12/04E Current NA NA NA NA NA
Previous NA NA NA NA NA
First Call Consensus EPS: 12/02E $0.08; 12/03E $0.69; 12/04E NA
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AVAILABLE UPON REQUEST
Securities recommended, offered, or sold by SSB: (i) are not insured by the
Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation; (ii) are not deposits or other
obligations of any insured depository institution (including Citibank); and
(iii) are subject to investment risks, including the possible loss of the
principal amount invested. (c) Salomon Smith Barney Inc., 2002. All rights
reserved. Any unauthorized use, duplication or disclosure is prohibited by law
and may result in prosecution. Please refer to ticker SSBDISCL for important
Salomon Smith Barney Disclaimer information. |
